In many advanced democracies like the USA, Britain and even our regional neighbour, Ghana, elections are very competitive. A ruling government can be easily voted out. Opposition parties know their day of glory will come if they can get the people on their side.
But here in Nigeria, to be in the opposition is akin to being in political life prison. Most politicians resort to releasing themselves from the imprisonment by joining the ruling party. That was the norm, until 2015 when the “unthinkable” happened. A once mighty ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, which dominated for 16 years, lost the presidential election to a nascent product of mergers: The All Progressives Congress, APC, jointly led by Muhammadu Buhari (President) and Bola Tinubu (“National Leader”).
By 2027, the APC will have completed 12 years of dominance. They will be aiming to achieve 16 like the PDP. A “coalition” has just gathered on the platform of the African Democratic Congress, ADC. It is made up of political giants from APC, PDP, Labour Party, LP, and others. These include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi; former Senate President, David Mark; former APC National Chairman, John Oyegun; former Tinubu right hand man in the APC, Rauf Aregbesola, and a host of others.
Naturally, this question has arisen: what are the coalition’s chances of defeating a behemoth like the APC? It is noteworthy that the APC has become as big as the PDP was at the height of the latter’s power. Once the battered Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, defects to the ruling party as widely anticipated, APC will have 28 states under its belt just as PDP did towards the 2011 elections. APC is very likely to surpass the PDP because more states are warming up to cross the carpet. The defections are not due to the APC’s success as a ruling party. Indeed, APC is the worst governing disaster Nigeria has ever run into. But politicians are trooping there because they (politicians) are like goats: they follow whoever is carrying the fodder.
Another reason people ask if the coalition has any chance is because President Bola Tinubu, no matter how he ends up, has established a personal legacy as the master politician of our time. He plotted the fall of President Goodluck Jonathan, capitalising fluidly on Buhari’s cult image in the Muslim North and the many dwindling fortunes of the PDP and Jonathan. He installed Buhari in Aso Rock in 2015, and supported his presidency through 2019. Then, despite his doubtful personal image, obvious health issues and Buhari’s initial hostility towards him as his successor, Tinubu still got himself sworn in as president.
This is no ordinary political opponent to take on as a sitting president. He has almost every “winning” tool in his palm: the Police, secret police, Armed Forces, the Judiciary and a very intimidating political structure. Unlike the PDP which split and five of its states joined the opposition, the APC as a ruling party appears very intact, at least for now. Tinubu is right now scanning the horizon for “suitably qualified” candidates to man the electoral umpire – the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, as from October this year. Tinubu is not a Jonathan who appointed an INEC Chair he did not know, Professor Attahiru Jega, who later turned against him, and got away with it.
We must also factor in the prevailing atmospheres that worked against Jonathan and in APC favour between2013 and 2014. The North used the Boko Haram terrorism for their political objective of ousting Jonathan. The abduction of 276 Chibok girls by Boko Haram insurgents exposed the Jonathan government to international outrage and ridicule. The Western powers, especially Barack Obama’s USA and the UK’s David Cameron, France and Canada, openly worked against Jonathan’s re-election bid because he signed the Anti-Same Sex Bill into law on January 14, 2014. Obama not only invited Northern governors to the US for the conspiracy to oust Jonathan, he brazenly made a broadcast on the eve of the 2015 elections urging Nigerians to “turn a new page”.
These were some of the factors that played to the advantage of the APC and opened the door to PDP’s downfall. For the ADC to stand any chance at all, they must emulate the leadership of the APC and make sacrifices. They must put their best and most popular material forward and back him unanimously. Subjecting the ADC to all-comers presidential primaries will produce Atiku and derail any chance the group may be hoping for. Peter Obi does not splash dollars, and that is one of the reasons he is so beloved.
The coalition must present a candidate who can rally the people to their side. My people have a saying: “After a woman has married two different husbands, she would know who treated her better”. Nigerians have experienced 16 years of PDP and 10 years (so far) of APC. PDP is dying because Nigerians turned their backs on it. The APC has worsened every problem they used to campaign against PDP. The people are reeling and looking for a “saviour”. If ADC can create a groundswell of acceptance by Nigerians across the board, if they can make the 2027 elections “too big to rig”, anything is possible. With the people on your side, no mountain shall be insurmountable.
Atiku, Obi and others in the coalition must learn from the lessons of the 2023 elections. Atiku and Obi polled over 13 million votes compared to Tinubu’s 8.7 million, according to Professor Yakubu’s controversial figures. Only a united, fortified front can bring more disgruntled APC leaders into the coalition. Without it, forget it.
The post The “coalition” and the mountain, by Ochereome Nnanna appeared first on Vanguard News.
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A new political coalition has emerged in Nigeria with the aim of challenging the dominant All Progressives Congress (APC) in the upcoming elections. Comprising politicians from various parties, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Senate President David Mark, the coalition is formed under the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The main question on people’s minds is whether this coalition stands a chance against the powerful APC, led by President Bola Tinubu, who has a strong political legacy and a formidable network of support. Despite the challenges ahead, the coalition hopes to appeal to the Nigerian people and present a unified front to make the 2027 elections competitive and fair.
Original Source: Vanguard News